Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Johnson, Dustin 99 - Smith, Cameron 118. Smith, Cameron is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The spread is -0.14.
Johnson, Dustin
+0.18
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Smith, Cameron
+0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Johnson, DustinSmith, Cameron
+117
Best Odds
+19.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smith, Cameron
111118125
Johnson, Dustin
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smith, Cameron
Strokes Gained
+0.04/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.010 SG adj
Expected Finish
118th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Cameron
+0.04 SG
EF 118th
Skill Gap
-0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Johnson, Dustin
Johnson, Dustin
+0.18 SG
EF 99th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.9%
Books Say
46.1%
Edge
+19.2%
Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin: Model gives Smith, Cameron 54.9% win probability vs 46.1% implied (+19.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 118.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Cameron 54.9%
+19.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+19.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →