Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Johnson, Dustin 0 - Smith, Cameron 105. Smith, Cameron is favored with a 59.3% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Johnson, Dustin
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Smith, Cameron
+0.43
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Johnson, DustinSmith, Cameron
+100
Best Odds
+18.5%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smith, Cameron
Strokes Gained
+0.43/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.046 SG adj
Expected Finish
105th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Cameron
+0.43 SG
EF 105th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Johnson, Dustin
Johnson, Dustin
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.3%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+18.5%
Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin: Model gives Smith, Cameron 59.3% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+18.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 105.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Cameron 59.3%
+18.5 pts
Spread
-0.1
+18.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →