Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Johnson, Dustin 0 - Smith, Cameron 106. Smith, Cameron is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Johnson, Dustin
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Smith, Cameron
+0.43
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Johnson, DustinSmith, Cameron
-125
Best Odds
+5.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smith, Cameron
Strokes Gained
+0.43/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.046 SG adj
Expected Finish
106th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Cameron
+0.43 SG
EF 106th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Johnson, Dustin
Johnson, Dustin
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.6%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+5.4%
Smith, Cameron vs Johnson, Dustin: Model gives Smith, Cameron 58.6% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+5.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 106.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Cameron 58.6%
+5.4 pts
Spread
-0.1
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →