Smith, Jordan vs Fox, Ryan prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fox, Ryan 119 - Smith, Jordan 103. Smith, Jordan is favored with a 66.0% win probability. The spread is 0.06.
Fox, Ryan
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Smith, Jordan
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fox, RyanSmith, Jordan
-120
Best Odds
+21.1%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smith, Jordan
96103110
Fox, Ryan
112119126
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smith, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+0.53/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
103th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Jordan
+0.53 SG
EF 103th
Skill Gap
+0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fox, Ryan
+0.47 SG
EF 119th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.0%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+21.1%
Smith, Jordan vs Fox, Ryan: Model gives Smith, Jordan 66.0% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+21.1% edge). Expected finish: 103.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Jordan 66.0%
+21.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+21.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →