Smith, Jordan vs Jaeger, Stephan prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaeger, Stephan 86 - Smith, Jordan 78. Smith, Jordan is favored with a 60.7% win probability. The spread is 0.11.
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Smith, Jordan
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Jaeger, StephanSmith, Jordan
-118
Best Odds
+12.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smith, Jordan
717885
Jaeger, Stephan
798693
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Smith, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+0.34/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.225 SG adj
Expected Finish
78th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Jordan
+0.34 SG
EF 78th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Smith, Jordan
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23 SG
EF 86th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.7%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+12.2%
Smith, Jordan vs Jaeger, Stephan: Model gives Smith, Jordan 60.7% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+12.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 78.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Jordan 60.7%
+12.2 pts
Spread
+0.1
+12.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →