Spaun, J.J. vs Griffin, Ben prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Griffin, Ben 34 - Spaun, J.J. 24. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 68.9% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Griffin, Ben
+1.07
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Spaun, J.J.
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Griffin, BenSpaun, J.J.
-115
Best Odds
+28.9%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spaun, J.J.
172431
Griffin, Ben
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.15/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.034 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.15 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Griffin, Ben
+1.07 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
68.9%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+28.9%
Spaun, J.J. vs Griffin, Ben: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 68.9% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+28.9% edge). Expected finish: 24.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 68.9%
+28.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+28.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →