Spaun, J.J. vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 35 - Spaun, J.J. 25. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 66.0% win probability. The spread is -0.21.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Spaun, J.J.
+1.19
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiSpaun, J.J.
-105
Best Odds
+28.8%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spaun, J.J.
182532
Matsuyama, Hideki
283542
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.19/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.190 SG adj
Expected Finish
25th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.19 SG
EF 25th
Skill Gap
-0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Matsuyama, Hideki
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41 SG
EF 35th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.0%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+28.8%
Spaun, J.J. vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 66.0% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+28.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 25.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 66.0%
+28.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+28.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →