Spaun, J.J. vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 34 - Spaun, J.J. 54. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.10
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiSpaun, J.J.
-115
Best Odds
+6.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spaun, J.J.
475461
Matsuyama, Hideki
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.24/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.013 SG adj
Expected Finish
54th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24 SG
EF 54th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.10 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+6.9%
Spaun, J.J. vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 58.0% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+8.4% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 54. AI: poor recent form.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 58.0%
+6.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+6.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →