Spaun, J.J. vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 0 - Spaun, J.J. 54. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The spread is 0.43.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithSpaun, J.J.
-132
Best Odds
+5.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.24/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.013 SG adj
Expected Finish
54th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24 SG
EF 54th
Skill Gap
+0.43 SG/round
meaningful edge for Spaun, J.J.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.8%
Books Say
56.9%
Edge
+5.3%
Spaun, J.J. vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 60.8% win probability vs 56.9% implied (+6.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.43 SG/round. Expected finish: 54. AI: poor recent form.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 60.8%
+5.3 pts
Spread
+0.4
+5.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →