Spaun, J.J. vs Reed, Patrick prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Reed, Patrick 98 - Spaun, J.J. 80. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The spread is 0.35.
Reed, Patrick
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Reed, PatrickSpaun, J.J.
-114
Best Odds
+17.5%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spaun, J.J.
738087
Reed, Patrick
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.31/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.120 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
+0.35 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Reed, Patrick
+0.97 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.6%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+17.5%
Spaun, J.J. vs Reed, Patrick: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 62.6% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+17.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 62.6%
+17.5 pts
Spread
+0.3
+17.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →