Spaun, J.J. vs Reed, Patrick prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Reed, Patrick 0 - Spaun, J.J. 72. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The spread is 0.38.
Reed, Patrick
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Spaun, J.J.
+1.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Reed, PatrickSpaun, J.J.
-111
Best Odds
+9.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.47/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.073 SG adj
Expected Finish
72th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.47 SG
EF 72th
Skill Gap
+0.38 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Reed, Patrick
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.4%
Books Say
52.6%
Edge
+9.1%
Spaun, J.J. vs Reed, Patrick: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 57.4% win probability vs 52.6% implied (+9.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.38 SG/round. Expected finish: 72.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 57.4%
+9.1 pts
Spread
+0.4
+9.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →