Spaun, J.J. vs Scott, Adam prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 37 - Spaun, J.J. 73. Spaun, J.J. is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The spread is 0.21.
Scott, Adam
+1.12
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Spaun, J.J.
+1.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamSpaun, J.J.
-128
Best Odds
+9.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spaun, J.J.
667380
Scott, Adam
303744
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Spaun, J.J.
Strokes Gained
+1.47/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.073 SG adj
Expected Finish
73th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Spaun, J.J.
+1.47 SG
EF 73th
Skill Gap
+0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Scott, Adam
+1.12 SG
EF 37th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.3%
Books Say
56.1%
Edge
+9.2%
Spaun, J.J. vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Spaun, J.J. 61.3% win probability vs 56.1% implied (+9.2% edge). Skill advantage: +0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 73.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spaun, J.J. 61.3%
+9.2 pts
Spread
+0.2
+9.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →