Spieth, Jordan vs Fowler, Rickie prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fowler, Rickie 71 - Spieth, Jordan 64. Spieth, Jordan is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The spread is -0.11.
Fowler, Rickie
+0.79
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • John Deere Classic
Spieth, Jordan
+0.68
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fowler, RickieSpieth, Jordan
-115
Best Odds
+12.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spieth, Jordan
576471
Fowler, Rickie
647178
Tournament Context
Event
John Deere Classic
Course
TPC Deere Run
Field
144 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
93°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Spieth, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+0.68/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.300 SG adj
Expected Finish
64th / 144
Matchup Analysis
Spieth, Jordan
+0.68 SG
EF 64th
Skill Gap
-0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Fowler, Rickie
Fowler, Rickie
+0.79 SG
EF 71th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.5%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+12.3%
Spieth, Jordan vs Fowler, Rickie: Model gives Spieth, Jordan 58.5% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+9.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 64. AI: strong recent form; course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spieth, Jordan 58.5%
+12.3 pts
Spread
-0.1
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →