Spieth, Jordan vs Gotterup, Chris prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gotterup, Chris 23 - Spieth, Jordan 20. Spieth, Jordan is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Gotterup, Chris
+1.17
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Spieth, Jordan
+1.08
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Gotterup, ChrisSpieth, Jordan
+122
Best Odds
+23.7%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spieth, Jordan
132027
Gotterup, Chris
162330
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Spieth, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+1.08/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.144 SG adj
Expected Finish
20th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Spieth, Jordan
+1.08 SG
EF 20th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Gotterup, Chris
Gotterup, Chris
+1.17 SG
EF 23th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.7%
Books Say
45.1%
Edge
+23.7%
Spieth, Jordan vs Gotterup, Chris: Model gives Spieth, Jordan 55.7% win probability vs 45.0% implied (+23.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 20.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spieth, Jordan 55.7%
+23.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+23.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →