Spieth, Jordan vs Lowry, Shane prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lowry, Shane 37 - Spieth, Jordan 82. Spieth, Jordan is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The spread is -0.21.
Lowry, Shane
+1.10
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Spieth, Jordan
+0.98
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Lowry, ShaneSpieth, Jordan
-111
Best Odds
+7.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Spieth, Jordan
758289
Lowry, Shane
303744
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Spieth, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+0.98/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.281 SG adj
Expected Finish
82th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Spieth, Jordan
+0.98 SG
EF 82th
Skill Gap
-0.21 SG/round
tight edge for Lowry, Shane
Lowry, Shane
+1.10 SG
EF 37th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.8%
Books Say
52.6%
Edge
+7.9%
Spieth, Jordan vs Lowry, Shane: Model gives Spieth, Jordan 56.7% win probability vs 52.6% implied (+7.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.21 SG/round. Expected finish: 82.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spieth, Jordan 56.8%
+7.9 pts
Spread
-0.2
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →