Stevens, Sam vs Theegala, Sahith prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Theegala, Sahith 51 - Stevens, Sam 34. Stevens, Sam is favored with a 67.2% win probability. The spread is 0.02.
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Stevens, Sam
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Theegala, SahithStevens, Sam
-125
Best Odds
+20.9%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Stevens, Sam
273441
Theegala, Sahith
445158
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Stevens, Sam
Strokes Gained
+0.81/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.256 SG adj
Expected Finish
34th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Stevens, Sam
+0.81 SG
EF 34th
Skill Gap
+0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81 SG
EF 51th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
67.2%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+20.9%
Stevens, Sam vs Theegala, Sahith: Model gives Stevens, Sam 67.2% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+20.9% edge). Expected finish: 34.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Stevens 67.2% h2h vs 56.3% implied = +19.2% edge; Stevens' +0.81 SG total + +0.26 course fit + near-zero skill parity (0.02 SG) = balanced edge with venue support.
Key Factors
- Stevens SG +0.81 total (solid mid-tier, EF 33.9)
- Course fit +0.258 SG (modest venue advantage)
- Skill diff +0.02 SG (near-parity, slight Stevens edge)
- BetOnline -129 (56.3% implied) vs 67.2% model = +19.2% edge
Risk Factors
- Course fit minimal (+0.258 SG); edge is driven by skill parity + modest venue
- Stevens EF 33.9 is mid-pack; limited upside in leaderboard pressure
- Theegala is rising star; model may underestimate relative performance vs Stevens
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Stevens, Sam 67.2%
+20.9 pts
Spread
+0.0
+20.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →