PGA Tour Golf

Straka, Sepp vs Bradley, Keegan Prediction

June 17, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Straka, Sepp vs Bradley, Keegan prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bradley, Keegan 34 - Straka, Sepp 93. Straka, Sepp is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is -0.15.

Bradley, Keegan
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • U.S. Open
Straka, Sepp
+0.83
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
40.5%
59.5%
Bradley, KeeganStraka, Sepp
-114
Best Odds
+11.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
FINALBradley, Keegan (T20) def Straka, Sepp (T53)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Straka, Sepp
8693100
Bradley, Keegan
273441

Tournament Context

Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players

Player Profile — Straka, Sepp

Strokes Gained
+0.83/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.066 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Straka, Sepp
+0.83 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Bradley, Keegan
Bradley, Keegan
+1.00 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+11.7%

Straka, Sepp vs Bradley, Keegan: Model gives Straka, Sepp 59.5% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+11.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Straka, Sepp 59.5%
+11.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+11.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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