Straka, Sepp vs Reed, Patrick prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Reed, Patrick 98 - Straka, Sepp 94. Straka, Sepp is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The spread is -0.03.
Reed, Patrick
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Straka, Sepp
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Reed, PatrickStraka, Sepp
+108
Best Odds
+18.2%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Straka, Sepp
8794101
Reed, Patrick
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Straka, Sepp
Strokes Gained
+0.94/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.031 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Straka, Sepp
+0.94 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
-0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Reed, Patrick
+0.97 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.8%
Books Say
48.1%
Edge
+18.2%
Straka, Sepp vs Reed, Patrick: Model gives Straka, Sepp 56.8% win probability vs 48.1% implied (+18.2% edge). Expected finish: 94.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Straka, Sepp 56.8%
+18.2 pts
Spread
-0.0
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →