Suber, Jackson vs Schmid, Matti prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Schmid, Matti 112 - Suber, Jackson 99. Suber, Jackson is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The spread is -0.36.
Schmid, Matti
+0.19
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Suber, Jackson
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Schmid, MattiSuber, Jackson
-103
Best Odds
+14.0%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Suber, Jackson
9299106
Schmid, Matti
105112119
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Suber, Jackson
Strokes Gained
-0.14/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.095 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Suber, Jackson
-0.14 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
-0.36 SG/round
tight edge for Schmid, Matti
Schmid, Matti
+0.19 SG
EF 112th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.8%
Books Say
50.7%
Edge
+14.0%
Suber, Jackson vs Schmid, Matti: Model gives Suber, Jackson 57.8% win probability vs 50.7% implied (+14.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.36 SG/round. Expected finish: 99.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Suber, Jackson 57.8%
+14.0 pts
Spread
-0.4
+14.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →