Svensson, Jesper vs Nyholm, Pontus prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Nyholm, Pontus 104 - Svensson, Jesper 105. Svensson, Jesper is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Nyholm, Pontus
-0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Svensson, Jesper
-0.56
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Nyholm, PontusSvensson, Jesper
-102
Best Odds
+19.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Svensson, Jesper
98105112
Nyholm, Pontus
97104111
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Svensson, Jesper
Strokes Gained
-0.56/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.051 SG adj
Expected Finish
105th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Svensson, Jesper
-0.56 SG
EF 105th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Nyholm, Pontus
Nyholm, Pontus
-0.40 SG
EF 104th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.5%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+19.9%
Svensson, Jesper vs Nyholm, Pontus: Model gives Svensson, Jesper 60.5% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+19.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 105.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Svensson, Jesper 60.5%
+19.9 pts
Spread
-0.2
+19.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →