PGA Tour Golf

Taylor, Nick vs Day, Jason Prediction

June 18, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Taylor, Nick vs Day, Jason prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Day, Jason 46 - Taylor, Nick 99. Taylor, Nick is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The spread is 0.11.

Day, Jason
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • U.S. Open
Taylor, Nick
+0.77
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
37.9%
62.1%
Day, JasonTaylor, Nick
-115
Best Odds
+16.1%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
FINALTaylor, Nick (T101) def Day, Jason (WD)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Taylor, Nick
9299106
Day, Jason
394653

Tournament Context

Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players

Player Profile — Taylor, Nick

Strokes Gained
+0.77/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.049 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Taylor, Nick
+0.77 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Taylor, Nick
Day, Jason
+0.64 SG
EF 46th · Above Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
62.1%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+16.1%

Taylor, Nick vs Day, Jason: Model gives Taylor, Nick 62.1% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+16.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 99.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Taylor, Nick 62.1%
+16.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+16.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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