PGA Tour Golf

Taylor, Nick vs Fowler, Rickie Prediction

June 18, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Taylor, Nick vs Fowler, Rickie prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fowler, Rickie 42 - Taylor, Nick 99. Taylor, Nick is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is -0.07.

Fowler, Rickie
+0.78
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • U.S. Open
Taylor, Nick
+0.77
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
40.5%
59.5%
Fowler, RickieTaylor, Nick
-110
Best Odds
+13.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
FINALFowler, Rickie (T31) def Taylor, Nick (T101)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Taylor, Nick
9299106
Fowler, Rickie
354249

Tournament Context

Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players

Player Profile — Taylor, Nick

Strokes Gained
+0.77/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.049 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Taylor, Nick
+0.77 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fowler, Rickie
+0.78 SG
EF 42th · Above Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+13.5%

Taylor, Nick vs Fowler, Rickie: Model gives Taylor, Nick 59.4% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+13.5% edge). Expected finish: 99.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Taylor, Nick 59.5%
+13.5 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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