Taylor, Nick vs Harman, Brian prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harman, Brian 53 - Taylor, Nick 45. Taylor, Nick is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The spread is 0.34.
Harman, Brian
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Taylor, Nick
+0.88
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Harman, BrianTaylor, Nick
-120
Best Odds
+6.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Taylor, Nick
384552
Harman, Brian
465360
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Taylor, Nick
Strokes Gained
+0.88/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.652 SG adj
Expected Finish
45th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Taylor, Nick
+0.88 SG
EF 45th
Skill Gap
+0.34 SG/round
tight edge for Taylor, Nick
Harman, Brian
+0.54 SG
EF 53th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.9%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+6.1%
Taylor, Nick vs Harman, Brian: Model gives Taylor, Nick 57.9% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+6.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.34 SG/round. Expected finish: 45.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Taylor, Nick 57.9%
+6.1 pts
Spread
+0.3
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →