Theegala, Sahith vs Mitchell, Keith prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mitchell, Keith 103 - Theegala, Sahith 87. Theegala, Sahith is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Mitchell, Keith
+0.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Theegala, Sahith
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Mitchell, KeithTheegala, Sahith
+103
Best Odds
+24.8%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Theegala, Sahith
808794
Mitchell, Keith
96103110
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Theegala, Sahith
Strokes Gained
+0.54/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.745 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Theegala, Sahith
+0.54 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Mitchell, Keith
Mitchell, Keith
+0.66 SG
EF 103th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.5%
Books Say
49.3%
Edge
+24.8%
Theegala, Sahith vs Mitchell, Keith: Model gives Theegala, Sahith 61.5% win probability vs 49.3% implied (+24.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 87.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Theegala, Sahith 61.5%
+24.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+24.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →