Thomas, Justin vs Rose, Justin prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rose, Justin 34 - Thomas, Justin 76. Thomas, Justin is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Rose, Justin
+1.20
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Thomas, Justin
+1.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rose, JustinThomas, Justin
-120
Best Odds
+9.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thomas, Justin
697683
Rose, Justin
273441
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Thomas, Justin
Strokes Gained
+1.25/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.177 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Thomas, Justin
+1.25 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Thomas, Justin
Rose, Justin
+1.20 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.9%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+9.9%
Thomas, Justin vs Rose, Justin: Model gives Thomas, Justin 59.9% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+9.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thomas, Justin 59.9%
+9.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →