Thompson, Davis vs Cauley, Bud prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 83 - Thompson, Davis 87. Cauley, Bud is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The spread is -0.3.
Cauley, Bud
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Thompson, Davis
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudThompson, Davis
+140
Best Odds
+16.5%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thompson, Davis
808794
Cauley, Bud
768390
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Thompson, Davis
Strokes Gained
+0.47/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.000 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thompson, Davis
+0.47 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
-0.30 SG/round
tight edge for Cauley, Bud
Cauley, Bud
+1.00 SG
EF 83th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
48.5%
Books Say
41.7%
Edge
+16.5%
Thompson, Davis vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Thompson, Davis 48.5% win probability vs 41.7% implied (+16.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.30 SG/round. Expected finish: 87.
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE0.6% WR (n=201)
Model gives Thompson 48.5% (underdog) but expected finish 88.0 vs Cauley's 71.8 — 16.2-point gap makes Thompson a true long-shot, not a close matchup; model is inverted—STRONG FADE.
Key Factors
- Cauley skill advantage: +0.299 SG/round
- Cauley course fit: +0.272 (strong advantage)
- Expected finish gap: Cauley 71.8 vs Thompson 88.0 (16.2 points — SEVERE separation)
- Model probability: 48.5% for clear underdog (contradicts finish data)
- Market probability: 41.7% (more aligned with finish data)
Risk Factors
- Internal contradiction between model probability (48.5%) and expected finish (88.0)
- Finish gap suggests Thompson is 25-30% dog, not 48.5%
- Market is right; model is wrong
MODEL INVERSIONSTRONG FADEFINISH CONTRADICTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cauley, Bud 51.4%
+16.5 pts
Spread
-0.3
+16.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →