Thompson, Davis vs Cauley, Bud prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 82 - Thompson, Davis 84. Cauley, Bud is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The spread is -0.3.
Cauley, Bud
+1.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Thompson, Davis
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudThompson, Davis
+130
Best Odds
+13.2%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thompson, Davis
778491
Cauley, Bud
758289
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Thompson, Davis
Strokes Gained
+0.47/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
84th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thompson, Davis
+0.47 SG
EF 84th
Skill Gap
-0.30 SG/round
tight edge for Cauley, Bud
Cauley, Bud
+1.00 SG
EF 82th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
49.2%
Books Say
43.5%
Edge
+13.2%
Thompson, Davis vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Thompson, Davis 49.2% win probability vs 43.5% implied (+13.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.30 SG/round. Expected finish: 84.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cauley, Bud 50.8%
+13.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+13.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →