Thompson, Davis vs Hisatsune, Ryo prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hisatsune, Ryo 72 - Thompson, Davis 71. Thompson, Davis is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Hisatsune, Ryo
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Thompson, Davis
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hisatsune, RyoThompson, Davis
+100
Best Odds
+9.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thompson, Davis
647178
Hisatsune, Ryo
657279
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Thompson, Davis
Strokes Gained
+0.59/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.225 SG adj
Expected Finish
71th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thompson, Davis
+0.59 SG
EF 71th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hisatsune, Ryo
+0.61 SG
EF 72th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.8%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+9.7%
Thompson, Davis vs Hisatsune, Ryo: Model gives Thompson, Davis 54.8% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+9.7% edge). Expected finish: 71.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thompson, Davis 54.8%
+9.7 pts
Spread
-0.0
+9.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →