Thompson, Davis vs Smith, Jordan prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smith, Jordan 0 - Thompson, Davis 83. Thompson, Davis is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Smith, Jordan
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Thompson, Davis
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smith, JordanThompson, Davis
+100
Best Odds
+10.9%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Thompson, Davis
Strokes Gained
+0.47/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thompson, Davis
+0.47 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Smith, Jordan
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.5%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+10.9%
Thompson, Davis vs Smith, Jordan: Model gives Thompson, Davis 55.5% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+10.9% edge). Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thompson, Davis 55.5%
+10.9 pts
Spread
+0.0
+10.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →