PGA Tour Golf

Thompson, Davis vs Theegala, Sahith Prediction

June 18, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Thompson, Davis vs Theegala, Sahith prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Theegala, Sahith 41 - Thompson, Davis 101. Thompson, Davis is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The spread is -0.1.

Theegala, Sahith
+0.71
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • U.S. Open
Thompson, Davis
+0.46
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
40.8%
59.2%
Theegala, SahithThompson, Davis
-105
Best Odds
+15.6%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
FINALTheegala, Sahith (T53) def Thompson, Davis (T85)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Thompson, Davis
94101108
Theegala, Sahith
344148

Tournament Context

Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players

Player Profile — Thompson, Davis

Strokes Gained
+0.46/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.132 SG adj
Expected Finish
101th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Thompson, Davis
+0.46 SG
EF 101th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Theegala, Sahith
+0.71 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
59.2%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+15.6%

Thompson, Davis vs Theegala, Sahith: Model gives Thompson, Davis 59.2% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+15.6% edge). Expected finish: 101.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Thompson, Davis 59.2%
+15.6 pts
Spread
-0.1
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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