Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Fitzpatrick, Alex prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Alex 85 - Thorbjornsen, Michael 78. Thorbjornsen, Michael is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The spread is -0.4.
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.58
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, AlexThorbjornsen, Michael
+110
Best Odds
+6.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thorbjornsen, Michael
717885
Fitzpatrick, Alex
788592
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Thorbjornsen, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.58/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.183 SG adj
Expected Finish
78th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.58 SG
EF 78th
Skill Gap
-0.40 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+1.03 SG
EF 85th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
50.9%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+6.9%
Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Fitzpatrick, Alex: Model gives Thorbjornsen, Michael 50.9% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+6.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.40 SG/round. Expected finish: 78.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thorbjornsen, Michael 50.9%
+6.9 pts
Spread
-0.4
+6.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →