Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Greyserman, Max prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Greyserman, Max 82 - Thorbjornsen, Michael 68. Thorbjornsen, Michael is favored with a 61.8% win probability. The spread is 0.06.
Greyserman, Max
+0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.46
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Greyserman, MaxThorbjornsen, Michael
-143
Best Odds
+5.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thorbjornsen, Michael
616875
Greyserman, Max
758289
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
17 mph
Temp
83°F
Conditions
harder (+0.9)
Player Profile — Thorbjornsen, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.46/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.455 SG adj
Expected Finish
68th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.46 SG
EF 68th
Skill Gap
+0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Greyserman, Max
+0.40 SG
EF 82th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.8%
Books Say
58.9%
Edge
+5.0%
Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Greyserman, Max: Model gives Thorbjornsen, Michael 61.8% win probability vs 58.8% implied (+5.0% edge). Expected finish: 68.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thorbjornsen, Michael 61.8%
+5.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+5.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →