Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Hojgaard, Rasmus prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Rasmus 106 - Thorbjornsen, Michael 102. Thorbjornsen, Michael is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The spread is 0.13.
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.50
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.63
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, RasmusThorbjornsen, Michael
-112
Best Odds
+16.1%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thorbjornsen, Michael
95102109
Hojgaard, Rasmus
99106113
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Thorbjornsen, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.63/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.106 SG adj
Expected Finish
102th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.63 SG
EF 102th
Skill Gap
+0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Thorbjornsen, Michael
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.50 SG
EF 106th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.3%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+16.1%
Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Hojgaard, Rasmus: Model gives Thorbjornsen, Michael 61.3% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+16.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 102.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thorbjornsen, Michael 61.3%
+16.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+16.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →