Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Koepka, Brooks prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Koepka, Brooks 72 - Thorbjornsen, Michael 70. Thorbjornsen, Michael is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The spread is -0.06.
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.46
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Koepka, BrooksThorbjornsen, Michael
+105
Best Odds
+13.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thorbjornsen, Michael
637077
Koepka, Brooks
657279
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Thorbjornsen, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.46/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.455 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.46 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
-0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51 SG
EF 72th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.5%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+13.7%
Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Koepka, Brooks: Model gives Thorbjornsen, Michael 55.5% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+13.7% edge). Expected finish: 70.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thorbjornsen, Michael 55.5%
+13.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →