Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Stevens, Sam prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stevens, Sam 100 - Thorbjornsen, Michael 101. Thorbjornsen, Michael is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The spread is 0.1.
Stevens, Sam
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.63
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Stevens, SamThorbjornsen, Michael
-105
Best Odds
+14.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Thorbjornsen, Michael
94101108
Stevens, Sam
93100107
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Thorbjornsen, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.63/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.106 SG adj
Expected Finish
101th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Thorbjornsen, Michael
+0.63 SG
EF 101th
Skill Gap
+0.10 SG/round
tight edge for Thorbjornsen, Michael
Stevens, Sam
+0.53 SG
EF 100th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.9%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+14.9%
Thorbjornsen, Michael vs Stevens, Sam: Model gives Thorbjornsen, Michael 58.9% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+14.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.10 SG/round. Expected finish: 101.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thorbjornsen, Michael 58.9%
+14.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+14.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →