Vilips, Karl vs Ryder, Sam prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ryder, Sam 98 - Vilips, Karl 95. Vilips, Karl is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The spread is -0.08.
Ryder, Sam
+0.01
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Vilips, Karl
-0.07
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Ryder, SamVilips, Karl
-113
Best Odds
+14.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Vilips, Karl
8895102
Ryder, Sam
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Vilips, Karl
Strokes Gained
-0.07/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.025 SG adj
Expected Finish
95th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Vilips, Karl
-0.07 SG
EF 95th
Skill Gap
-0.08 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Ryder, Sam
+0.01 SG
EF 98th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.6%
Books Say
53.0%
Edge
+14.2%
Vilips, Karl vs Ryder, Sam: Model gives Vilips, Karl 60.6% win probability vs 53.1% implied (+14.2% edge). Expected finish: 95.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Vilips, Karl 60.6%
+14.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →