Wallace, Matt vs Jaeger, Stephan prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaeger, Stephan 0 - Wallace, Matt 90. Wallace, Matt is favored with a 61.1% win probability. The spread is 0.27.
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Wallace, Matt
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Jaeger, StephanWallace, Matt
-130
Best Odds
+8.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Wallace, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.54/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.182 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Wallace, Matt
+0.54 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
+0.27 SG/round
tight edge for Wallace, Matt
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.1%
Books Say
56.5%
Edge
+8.0%
Wallace, Matt vs Jaeger, Stephan: Model gives Wallace, Matt 61.1% win probability vs 56.5% implied (+8.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.27 SG/round. Expected finish: 90.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Wallace, Matt 61.1%
+8.0 pts
Spread
+0.3
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →