PGA Tour Golf

Woodland, Gary vs Finau, Tony Prediction

May 28, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Woodland, Gary vs Finau, Tony prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 39 - Woodland, Gary 56. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The spread is 0.46.

Finau, Tony
+0.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Woodland, Gary
+0.70
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
41.8%
58.2%
Finau, TonyWoodland, Gary
-105
Best Odds
+15.7%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
FINALWoodland, Gary (T5) def Finau, Tony (T80)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Woodland, Gary
495663
Finau, Tony
323946

Tournament Context

Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)

Player Profile — Woodland, Gary

Strokes Gained
+0.70/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.518 SG adj
Expected Finish
56th / 132

Matchup Analysis

Woodland, Gary
+0.70 SG
EF 56th
Skill Gap
+0.46 SG/round
meaningful edge for Woodland, Gary
Finau, Tony
+0.24 SG
EF 39th · Tour Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
58.2%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+15.7%

Woodland, Gary vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Woodland, Gary 58.3% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+13.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.46 SG/round. Expected finish: 56. AI: course specialist.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 58.2%
+15.7 pts
Spread
+0.5
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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