Woodland, Gary vs Kitayama, Kurt prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kitayama, Kurt 11 - Woodland, Gary 9. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Kitayama, Kurt
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Woodland, Gary
+0.69
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kitayama, KurtWoodland, Gary
+120
Best Odds
+19.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Woodland, Gary
2916
Kitayama, Kurt
41118
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Woodland, Gary
Strokes Gained
+0.69/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.129 SG adj
Expected Finish
9th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Woodland, Gary
+0.69 SG
EF 9th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Kitayama, Kurt
Kitayama, Kurt
+0.86 SG
EF 11th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.4%
Books Say
45.5%
Edge
+19.6%
Woodland, Gary vs Kitayama, Kurt: Model gives Woodland, Gary 54.3% win probability vs 45.5% implied (+19.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 9.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 54.4%
+19.6 pts
Spread
-0.2
+19.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →