Woodland, Gary vs Noren, Alex prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Noren, Alex 40 - Woodland, Gary 94. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The spread is -0.29.
Noren, Alex
+1.07
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Woodland, Gary
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Noren, AlexWoodland, Gary
+105
Best Odds
+12.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Woodland, Gary
8794101
Noren, Alex
334047
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Woodland, Gary
Strokes Gained
+0.86/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.007 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Woodland, Gary
+0.86 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
-0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Noren, Alex
Noren, Alex
+1.07 SG
EF 40th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.0%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+12.8%
Woodland, Gary vs Noren, Alex: Model gives Woodland, Gary 55.0% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+12.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 55.0%
+12.8 pts
Spread
-0.3
+12.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →