Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 33 - Woodland, Gary 56. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The spread is -0.46.
Smalley, Alex
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Woodland, Gary
+0.70
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexWoodland, Gary
+115
Best Odds
+12.5%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Woodland, Gary
495663
Smalley, Alex
263340
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
85°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Player Profile — Woodland, Gary
Strokes Gained
+0.70/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.518 SG adj
Expected Finish
56th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Woodland, Gary
+0.70 SG
EF 56th
Skill Gap
-0.46 SG/round
meaningful edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+1.32 SG
EF 33th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
50.9%
Books Say
46.5%
Edge
+12.5%
Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Woodland, Gary 51.0% win probability vs 46.5% implied (+9.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.46 SG/round. Expected finish: 56. AI: strong recent form; course specialist.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Woodland's +0.518 course fit vs Smalley's neutral fit + 50.7% model probability vs 46.5% market generates +12.1% relative edge, but tight 50.7% absolute probability and weak SG differential (-0.463 vs Smalley) limit conviction to LEAN.
Key Factors
- Course fit: Woodland +0.518 vs Smalley neutral provides slim advantage
- Expected finish: Woodland 56.1 vs Smalley ~65 = modest gap
- SG weakness: Woodland -0.463 skill gap vs Smalley = significant disadvantage
- Betmgm +115 = 46.5% market, model 50.7% = only +4.2% absolute edge
Risk Factors
- Model giving Woodland barely >50% probability — highly dependent on course fit interpretation
- If fit impact is overstated, Woodland drops below 48% and edge disappears entirely
- SG disadvantage (-0.463) is substantial; course fit must be powerful to offset
COURSE FIT DEPENDENTWEAK PROBABILITYTIGHT EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 50.9%
+12.5 pts
Spread
-0.5
+12.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →