Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 36 - Woodland, Gary 55. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The spread is -0.46.
Smalley, Alex
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Woodland, Gary
+0.70
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexWoodland, Gary
+127
Best Odds
+19.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Woodland, Gary
485562
Smalley, Alex
293643
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Woodland, Gary
Strokes Gained
+0.70/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.518 SG adj
Expected Finish
55th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Woodland, Gary
+0.70 SG
EF 55th
Skill Gap
-0.46 SG/round
meaningful edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+1.15 SG
EF 36th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.5%
Books Say
44.0%
Edge
+19.9%
Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Woodland, Gary 51.5% win probability vs 44.1% implied (+16.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.46 SG/round. Expected finish: 55. AI: strong recent form; course specialist.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Woodland's strong course fit (+0.518) + solid SG (0.698) overcome a significant skill deficit (−0.463 to Smalley) to produce a 16.0% edge; Colonial's tight layout favors Woodland's archetype.
Key Factors
- Model: 51.5% vs 44.4% implied (+16.0% edge)
- Course fit: +0.518 (above-average advantage)
- SG total: +0.698 (solid baseline)
- Skill deficit to Smalley: −0.463 (but fit compensates)
- Odds: +125 (Caesars) good value
Risk Factors
- Woodland's skill is well below Smalley (−0.463 SG), limiting upside
- Fit edge (+0.518) may not fully cover gap in elite tournament
- Smalley is favorite; creates variance risk
FIT DRIVENSKILL DEFICIT OVERCOMEPROPER ODDS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 51.5%
+19.9 pts
Spread
-0.5
+19.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →