Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 32 - Woodland, Gary 56. Woodland, Gary is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The spread is -0.46.
Smalley, Alex
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Woodland, Gary
+0.70
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexWoodland, Gary
+127
Best Odds
+17.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Woodland, Gary
495663
Smalley, Alex
253239
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Woodland, Gary
Strokes Gained
+0.70/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.518 SG adj
Expected Finish
56th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Woodland, Gary
+0.70 SG
EF 56th
Skill Gap
-0.46 SG/round
meaningful edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+1.32 SG
EF 32th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
50.9%
Books Say
44.0%
Edge
+17.6%
Woodland, Gary vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Woodland, Gary 50.9% win probability vs 44.1% implied (+15.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.46 SG/round. Expected finish: 56. AI: course specialist.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Woodland, Gary 50.9%
+17.6 pts
Spread
-0.5
+17.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →