FINAL: CGY 2 — ANA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CGY 2.34 - ANA 3.5 (ANA at 59.6% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
CGY
2.34
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
ANA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CGYANA
+1.5
Spread (CGY)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
ANACGY L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
ANA
2.43.54.6
CGY
1.32.33.4
Projected
CGY 2.34 — ANA 3.5
Actual
CGY 2 — ANA 3
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalWIN+0.81u
Game Odds
CGY ML
+114
ANA ML
-139
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
CGY Edge
-6.3%
ANA Edge
+1.5%
Projected Total
5.84
-0.66 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal
23-233.03 GAA89.3% SV
Dustin Wolf
29-162.99 GAA89.6% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 34.3% – 46.5% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 59.6%
-6.3 pts
Spread
+1.5
-6.3 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →