FINAL: DAL 4 — COL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DAL 4.61 - COL 3.36 (DAL at 54.4% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.0.
DAL
4.61
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
COL
3.36
Projected Score
Win Probability
DALCOL
+1.5
Spread (DAL)
6.0
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
COL L4DAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
2.33.44.4
DAL
3.54.65.7
Projected
DAL 4.61 — COL 3.36
Actual
DAL 4 — COL 5
Pick Results
Over 6.0totalWIN+0.83u
Game Odds
DAL ML
+102
COL ML
-122
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
DAL Edge
+4.9%
COL Edge
-9.4%
Projected Total
7.97
+1.97 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Scott Wedgewood
1-22.25 GAA91.4% SV
Jake Oettinger
36-182.67 GAA89.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 46.3% – 62.6% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DAL 54.4%
+4.9 pts
Spread
+1.5
+4.9 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →