FINAL: SJS 2 — EDM 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SJS 2.41 - EDM 3.15 (EDM at 55.5% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
SJS
2.41
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
EDM
3.15
Projected Score
Win Probability
SJSEDM
+1.5
Spread (SJS)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
EDM
2.13.14.2
SJS
1.32.43.5
Projected
SJS 2.41 — EDM 3.15
Actual
SJS 2 — EDM 5
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
SJS ML
+106
EDM ML
-129
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
SJS Edge
-4.0%
EDM Edge
-0.9%
Projected Total
5.56
-0.94 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Tristan Jarry
16-123.30 GAA88.3% SV
Yaroslav Askarov
4-63.56 GAA88.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 37.8% – 51.2% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.5% WR (n=137)
EDM away ML is RED zone (45.5% WR), on B2B second game with tired goalie (fatigue 0.85), while market pricing EDM at 56.3% is already efficient. Model edge negligible (-0.85%), SJS form (4-1 L5, 3.8 GF) stronger than EDM (3-2, 3.2 GF). Avoid away favorite.
Key Factors
- Away ML is RED zone disaster: EDM -129 is in worst-performing category (45.5% WR, n=137), our #1 avoid
- B2B second game fatigue critical: EDM fatigue_factor 0.85 (worst on slate), implies -0.15 to -0.25 goal regression for Jarry, real-time not modeled
- SJS hotter in recent form: 4-1 L5 (3.8 GF) vs EDM 3-2 (3.2 GF) — counterintuitive to model's 55.48% EDM
- EDM elite PP doesn't overcome: 29.72% PP is strong, but SJS 77.73% PK is solid, limiting advantage
- Market efficient: 56.3% market implied vs 55.48% model = only 0.85% edge, too thin to overcome category headwind
Risk Factors
- Away favorite in RED zone: 45.5% historical WR is pattern-based, not noise — strong reason to avoid
- B2B goalie fatigue: Jarry on second night will regress in SV% by ~0.5-1.0%, model doesn't account for intra-game fatigue
- SJS form reversal: 4-1 L5 is elite trend, unusual for 'rebuilding' team, may represent underestimated improvement
AWAY DOG POISONRED ZONEB2B GOALIEB2B FATIGUEINJURY IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
EDM 55.5%
-4.0 pts
Spread
+1.5
-4.0 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →