FINAL: CBJ 4 — LAK 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CBJ 3.63 - LAK 2.7 (CBJ at 61.6% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.0.
CBJ
3.63
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
LAK
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CBJLAK
-1.5
Spread (CBJ)
6.0
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
LAK W4CBJ L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAK
1.62.73.8
CBJ
2.53.64.7
Projected
CBJ 3.63 — LAK 2.7
Actual
CBJ 4 — LAK 5
Pick Results
CBJ MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Game Odds
CBJ ML
-143
LAK ML
+118
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
CBJ Edge
+2.8%
LAK Edge
-7.5%
Projected Total
6.33
+0.33 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Darcy Kuemper
31-112.72 GAA89.6% SV
Jet Greaves
7-22.65 GAA90.9% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 52.4% – 70.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE59.7% WR (n=62)
CBJ's elite Jet Greaves (.938 SV%, 1.91 GAA — historically rare for a rebuild-adjacent team) gives the home side a significant goaltending edge over a road LAK team in freefall (3-7 L10), and the Garland acquisition adds offensive upside not fully in season-long market models.
Key Factors
- Greaves SV% .938 / GAA 1.91 vs Kuemper .922 / GAA 2.02 — both elite tier but Greaves' numbers are historically extraordinary, ~0.2 goal/game edge
- CBJ 32-21-9 record vs LAK 25-23-14 — 7-point gap in the standings, home team is the clearly stronger squad
- LAK form: 2-3 L5, 3-7 L10, L1 streak, averaging only 2.6 GF/game in L5 vs 3.8 GA/game allowed
- CBJ speed_transition archetype (tempo 1.051) vs LAK balanced archetype (tempo 1.013) — CBJ pace advantage at home
- CBJ PP: 19.6% vs LAK PK: 75.3% (below-average penalty kill) — power play exploitation edge; LAK PK is a known liability
Risk Factors
- Kuemper is also elite tier (.922 SV%) — goalie matchup edge is smaller than headline Greaves number suggests, both are above-average
- CBJ xGF/60 of 2.63 vs strong defensive LAK structure (xGA/60 2.24) — LAK limits quality chances despite poor recent form
- CBJ 3-in-4 schedule flag (fatigue_factor 1.0 but 3-in-4 window) — potential fatigue in depth lines late in games
GOALIE ELITEGOALIE CONFIRMEDHOME ICETEMPO EDGEHOT STREAKDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CBJ 61.6%
+2.8 pts
Spread
-1.5
+2.8 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →