FINAL: DAL 2 — MIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DAL 2.63 - MIN 3.18 (MIN at 53.2% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 5.5.
DAL
2.63
Projected Score
VS
O/U 5.5
MIN
3.18
Projected Score
Win Probability
DALMIN
-1.5
Spread (DAL)
5.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN W5DAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
2.13.24.3
DAL
1.52.63.7
Projected
DAL 2.63 — MIN 3.18
Actual
DAL 2 — MIN 4
Pick Results
MIN MLmlWIN+0.54u
Game Odds
DAL ML
-125
MIN ML
+104
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
5.5
Edge Detail
DAL Edge
-8.8%
MIN Edge
+4.2%
Projected Total
5.81
+0.31 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV
Jake Oettinger
36-182.59 GAA89.9% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 40.1% – 41.8% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 53.2%
-8.8 pts
Spread
-1.5
-8.8 pts
Total
5.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →