FINAL: EDM 3 — NSH 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected EDM 3.5 - NSH 2.44 (EDM at 62.5% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
EDM
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NSH
2.44
Projected Score
Win Probability
EDMNSH
-1.5
Spread (EDM)
6.5
Total Line
5,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
NSH
1.42.43.5
EDM
2.43.54.6
Projected
EDM 3.5 — NSH 2.44
Actual
EDM 3 — NSH 1
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalWIN+2.28u
Game Odds
EDM ML
-185
NSH ML
+154
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
EDM Edge
-2.4%
NSH Edge
-1.9%
Projected Total
5.94
-0.56 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Juuse Saros
20-313.15 GAA89.3% SV
Tristan Jarry
16-123.33 GAA88.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 53.1% – 71.9% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE57.4% WR (n=19)
EDM is a strong -185 home favorite with Connor Ingram confirmed in net against a NSH team that is 3-7 in their last 10, has Saros as an unconfirmed starter with B2B concern, and is visiting a dangerous home environment where EDM's elite PP (32.1%) can exploit NSH's weak PK (80.7%).
Key Factors
- EDM Ingram CONFIRMED (.890 SV%, 9-6-2 record, 2.79 GAA) — reliable NHL starter, not a backup situation
- NSH: Saros UNCONFIRMED (B2B concern — rest schedule shows NSH has 3 rest days so may NOT be B2B, verify), 3-7 L10 record, OT1 streak
- EDM elite PP: 32.1% power play rate (league-leading territory) vs NSH PK 80.7% — exploitable mismatch
- EDM home record advantage: balanced archetype with 3.499 GF/game, 32.1% PP is unstoppable at home
- NSH 3-7 L10: Cold streak with 3.4 GF but 3.0 GA — underlying metrics suggest a team that can score but leaks goals
Risk Factors
- NSH actually has 3 rest days (fatigue_factor 0.98) — well-rested team with Saros potentially starting (unconfirmed)
- If Saros starts, EDM's edge narrows significantly — Saros 43 GS this season despite being listed as backup tier
- EDM is in 3-in-4 schedule (fatigue_factor 0.885) — Ingram may be tired from recent workload
GOALIE CONFIRMEDGOALIE UNCONFIRMEDHOME ICESPECIAL TEAMS EDGEB2B FATIGUECOLD STREAK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
EDM 62.5%
-2.4 pts
Spread
-1.5
-2.4 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →