FINAL: ANA 5 — NYI 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ANA 2.18 - NYI 3.51 (NYI at 56.7% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
ANA
2.18
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NYI
3.51
Projected Score
Win Probability
ANANYI
+1.5
Spread (ANA)
6.5
Total Line
1,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYI
2.43.54.6
ANA
1.12.23.3
Projected
ANA 2.18 — NYI 3.51
Actual
ANA 5 — NYI 1
Pick Results
Under 6.5totalWIN+0.93u
Game Odds
ANA ML
-106
NYI ML
-115
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
ANA Edge
-8.2%
NYI Edge
+3.2%
Projected Total
5.69
-0.81 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Ilya Sorokin
30-242.47 GAA91.5% SV
Lukas Dostal
23-233.04 GAA89.4% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 36.8% – 49.8% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE52.3% WR (n=88)
The model's core prediction (ANA 3.6 – NYI 1.4) assumes Ilya Sorokin in net for NYI, but David Rittich is confirmed starting — Rittich has a catastrophic 3.56 GAA/.847 SV% in his last 5 games, completely invalidating the model's scoring distribution; simultaneously, ANA is on B2B (fatigue 0.85) with Husso unconfirmed, and the Under line at 21.1% model edge falls squarely in our worst-performing RED zone (20%+ edge: 22.2% WR historically).
Key Factors
- GOALIE SWAP INVALIDATION: Model assumed Sorokin (.907 SV%) but Rittich confirmed (.847 SV% L5) — swing of ~0.6+ goals in ANA's favor, not NYI's, undermines the model's 1.39 NYI predicted score
- B2B FATIGUE: ANA fatigue factor 0.85 (B2B, 3-in-4), played COL March 3 (lost 5-1) — second night of B2B + blown out = possible emotional letdown/lineup management
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: Under at 21.1% model edge — RED zone historically, 20%+ edge: 22.2% WR all-time (-13.79u at 20-25% edge bucket recent 30 days)
- ANA goalie unconfirmed: Husso (3.07 GAA/.888 SV%) listed but unconfirmed — if Husso starts, both goalies are sub-average backups, total picture murkier
- NYR zone: ANA home ML at -108 (5-10% edge, 55-60% prob) sits in YELLOW zone: 52.3% WR/88 tracked bets — no strong green confirmation even without the goalie swap issue
Risk Factors
- Rittich confirmed starting (NOT Sorokin) — model built on wrong goalie assumption, directional call invalidated
- ANA B2B (fatigue 0.85, lost 5-1 to COL last night) — tired legs and lineup management uncertainty
- 21.1% edge on Under = HIGH_EDGE_WARNING — historically worst-performing bucket (22.2% WR all-time at 20%+ edge)
GOALIE BACKUPGOALIE FORM COLDB2B FATIGUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGDATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYI 56.7%
-8.2 pts
Spread
+1.5
-8.2 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 1,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →